Lynn Johannson, Advisor, Sustainability and ESG
January 4th, 2024
ETF News | May 21, 2024
Image: Coingecko
As reported on Coindesk, on Monday Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the approval odds for a spot Ether ETF from 25% to 75% after indications that the SEC might be adopting a more favorable stance towards these applications. They later clarified that their revised odds pertain to 19b-4 filings specifically. The SEC's decision on the VanEck spot Ether ETF is expected on May 23rd. The price of ETH jumped 10% on the news since it was previously largely assumed that approval of a spot ETF was an uphill battle, with the price of ethereum currently trading at a 20% premium in the $3,800 range compared to yesterday.
Via @coindesk fyi https://t.co/2PNBCkr90q pic.twitter.com/ElI4rIp8Ho
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
Also worthy of noting is that according to an on-chain analyst, Ethereum's market capitalization of $440 billion just surpassed Mastercard's market cap of $427 billion.
The approval of a spot Ether ETF could be a game-changer for the broader cryptocurrency market. Unlike futures ETFs, a spot ETF holds actual Ether, making it more attractive to institutional investors seeking secure and regulated exposure to digital assets. The ease of access and regulatory compliance of a spot ETF are likely to attract substantial institutional funds. With Ether's market cap approaching $400 billion, a spot ETF could add billions in value.
Approval of a spot Ether ETF would be an 'eye opening' change in regulatory attitudes towards Ethereum digital currency. The SEC's cautious stance and efforts to classify ETH as a security has been a barrier, while also often citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. A successful ETF could demonstrate that these risks are manageable reflecting a growing confidence in regulatory frameworks adapting to include digital assets.
The introduction of a spot Ether ETF is expected to significantly enhance market liquidity. By providing a regulated and easily accessible investment vehicle, the ETF would attract a broader range of investors, from retail to institutional. Increased liquidity generally leads to reduced price volatility, making Ether a more stable investment.
A spot Ether ETF must address several technical and security concerns to gain regulatory approval and investor confidence. Key considerations include secure custody of Ether, typically utilizing cold storage solutions to prevent hacking, and transparent price tracking with robust auditing mechanisms. Approximately 95% of the ETF’s Ether could be held in cold storage, minimizing hacking risks. Regular audits by third-party firms would ensure the integrity of the holdings.
Prometheum has launched a timely Ether custody service, treating ETH as a security in compliance with existing financial regulations. This move aligns with the company's commitment to regulatory adherence and aims to provide a secure custody solution for institutional investors.
Institutional investors and market participants are closely watching the developments surrounding a potential spot Ether ETF. Hedge funds, asset managers, and other institutional players are likely positioning themselves by increasing their exposure to Ether in anticipation of the ETF’s approval.
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